陈桂林谈交易
陈桂林谈交易
There is a trend to play the trend, and there is no trend to play the fluctuation.
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Regarding the COINBASE and CIRCLE distribution contract expiring in August, here is the explanation from @grok.
Looking at it this way, CIRCLE is in a very weak position in this contract, basically like a tenant farmer in the old society;
Although CIRCLE's other business revenues are growing rapidly, the main business income (the vast majority) is still interest income (and they have to share so much with COINBASE!!!)!!!
This is how the market is—it unfolds step by step, and signals gradually emerge from chaos to clarity.
Therefore, before the market has fully developed, you cannot force analysts or traders to give you a definitive conclusion about where the market must go;
After all, once the market unfolds and aligns with their trading system, they will naturally speak up without being pushed, won’t fear being wrong, and will act with their positions.
Murphychen
The chip structure renders the formation process of BTC's bottom more three-dimensional.
BTC is following the script mentioned in the quote! While investors across the entire market are focusing on the 200-day moving average, if we combine this with chip structure analysis, we can gain a deeper understanding of price behavior.
Although BTC has been oscillating in the 60k-70k range for 2 months, there is only one real position where large funds entered to bottom-fish — $66,000, where 440,000 BTC were accumulated, including 240,000 BTC that changed hands between February and April.
Visually, 60k seems like the lowest price, but very few funds actually bottom-fished in the 60k-63k range; even those who did sold during the rebound (because the chip quantity in the 60k-63k range is now similar to that in January).
Therefore, when analyzing the bottom structure, we should not take 60k as the starting point but rather use the entry of funds (the concentrated turnover area) as the standard. Clearly, the 78k-82k range has not yet seen enough turnover; funds are entering cautiously, and divergences need to be digested.
However, the chip proportion in the 65k-78k range has already reached 13.8%. By comparison, before the FTX crash in the previous cycle, in October 2022, the chip proportion in the $18,000-$23,000 range was 18.7%.
Although there is still a 5 percentage point gap, we must consider that in this cycle, traditional funds like ETFs and MSTR have locked nearly 13% of circulating chips at relatively high levels. Therefore, the chip proportions allocated to other ranges must be relatively smaller.
So, I personally believe that the 13.8% circulating chip accumulation in the 65k-78k range forms a foundational bottom structure.
Of course, given time, if this foundation becomes more solid (with a second retest entering this range and further turnover), it will have stronger "resilience" than before and become a true bottom range!
The world's largest market cap stock $NVDA can go up 5% one day, then 3% the next;
I can only say inflation is too severe, which is good news for bitcoin bitcoin:native.
The price of 196 at the time of the clear signal was basically the lowest point, it's not that I'm awesome, just a coincidence.
陈桂林谈交易
When it comes to the US stock market, we can't not mention $NVDA.
First, the conclusion: I believe that NVIDIA is definitely undervalued right now, with a PE of 40 and a dynamic PE of 24, which are at relatively low points. Currently, funds are just being attracted to more appealing storage options, and this pullback presents a very good opportunity to build positions;
The trend for AI hasn't changed, and the trend for NVIDIA hasn't changed either. A healthy pullback means it's time to get on board.
From a technical perspective: it has been consolidating for 150 days, and the weekly MACD is testing the zero line; breaking out of the previous high in a push wave, with daily moving averages in a bullish arrangement, perfectly aligning with the trading strategy of looking for wave 1, buying wave 2, and waiting for wave 3.
Don't look down, look up (see the chart). In a word, just do it!
What role do $IGV and $MSFT currently play in the US stock market?
Is there a feeling like: "They got tired of playing with hardware, it was too intense; then they thought of you again, casually messing around for a bit to take a break, and after resting, they go back to hardware again?"
Just this expression~
Rebirth: My $NVDA Nvidia Bull Market Dodge: Today surged 2% proudly standing tall!
陈桂林谈交易
When it comes to the US stock market, we can't not mention $NVDA.
First, the conclusion: I believe that NVIDIA is definitely undervalued right now, with a PE of 40 and a dynamic PE of 24, which are at relatively low points. Currently, funds are just being attracted to more appealing storage options, and this pullback presents a very good opportunity to build positions;
The trend for AI hasn't changed, and the trend for NVIDIA hasn't changed either. A healthy pullback means it's time to get on board.
From a technical perspective: it has been consolidating for 150 days, and the weekly MACD is testing the zero line; breaking out of the previous high in a push wave, with daily moving averages in a bullish arrangement, perfectly aligning with the trading strategy of looking for wave 1, buying wave 2, and waiting for wave 3.
Don't look down, look up (see the chart). In a word, just do it!
The pinned post was published on April 15, and the community information was marked on April 14;
BTC has surged to this height, and whether it wants to go down to break a new low, whether in the second half of the bear market or a spike below the bottom followed by a reversal, it is very difficult for the bears.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is option 1.
陈桂林谈交易
On-chain data analysis and K-line technical analysis often spark the same frequency at certain nodes:
A few days ago, while discussing with @Murphychen888, we talked about:
1. From the perspective of K-line technical analysis, BTC has the potential to establish a bottom at 60,000, based on the argument that during the rebound range of 60,000-76,000, due to the long horizontal time and large range, it has forcibly turned the weekly MACD into a golden cross under water, and the weekly RSI has formed a golden cross in the lower half;
2. However, it is important to note that the weekly level is a very large trading range, and its indicator golden cross, especially the golden cross under water, does not directly imply a trend reversal from bear to bull, but it can indicate the possibility of establishing a bottom in this price range, within this K-line oscillation structure;
3. The weekly level is too large, as it contains smaller trading ranges such as the 3-day level and daily level, and the upward movement of the weekly level must be accompanied by its subordinate levels, especially the daily level's pullback. This is not metaphysics; it is a rule. Just think about whether a continuous large green bullish candle at the weekly level would be accompanied by overbought conditions at the daily level? Divergence?
4. So why do we say that there is a possibility of establishing a bottom in this range? The observation point lies in the strength of the daily level pullback within the weekly golden cross, which can be divided into the following three situations:
1. Shallow pullback, whether it pulls back to 62,000 or 68,000, the pullback point is within the oscillation range. If it is accompanied by a volume spike, oversold indicators, indicator divergence, and a complete structure of the pullback K-line, with a complete wave pattern, and then moves upward to create momentum; then this serves as evidence that the weekly level has already established an upward trend;
2. Bottom reversal, breaking the previous low of 60,000 (for example, between 55,000-58,000), if it breaks but not deeply, and is accompanied by a complete signal of the end of the decline, what will this cause? It will cause indicator divergence at the weekly level, and indicator divergence means insufficient downward momentum, which is also a signal of trend reversal (see Chart 1, compare with Chart 2);
3. Black swan, the price breaks the previous low of 60,000, but whether from the K-line or from the indicators, the downward momentum at the daily level is still sufficient. Due to the sufficient downward momentum at the daily level, during the downward movement of the K-line, the weekly indicator turns from green to red, causing a false golden cross under water, which would lead to a new large-scale decline.
5. Whether it is an upward or downward movement, it is the interaction and mutual verification of different levels. So where are we now? We have reached the natural resistance point formed by the previous high of 76,000. At this point, we are facing a pullback caused by the overbought and divergence at the hourly level. Therefore, next, we just need to observe whether this hourly level pullback will expand to a larger level (4H---12H---1D?) (Chart 3).
In this round of Bitcoin's rise, many traders are shorting, probably because the posts I usually browse are mostly about trading types, so I keep seeing them...
From the 72,000 mark to the 76,000 wave, and finally now starting from 78,000, they keep testing highs with shorts, continuously taking losses and losing money, some even holding onto losing positions; from "the higher you go, the more excited I get" to now...
A small portion of them have been shorting all the way down from the top, seeing that the bear market structure hasn't changed, so they keep trading with the trend. Honestly, I really admire them; it reminds me of myself back then, not believing the bull market was over, going long on Ethereum from 3,700 all the way down to 3,000 before being forced to stop loss.
A large part of them are what I call the "miscellaneous short sellers"—no shorts at 120,000, no shorts at 116,000, no shorts at 98,000, and only when it dropped to the 60-70,000 range did they start to endure and short. To them, I just want to say, hehe~ serves you right!
The $PEPE I remember should be like this, this, then this, and then this, at the very least it should be like this, right?
What is this now? Where is the PEPE community? Where are the people from the PEPE legion? Where is the spirit of blockchain? Where is the dignity of the number one MEME in the crypto world???
When it comes to the US stock market, we can't not mention $NVDA.
First, the conclusion: I believe that NVIDIA is definitely undervalued right now, with a PE of 40 and a dynamic PE of 24, which are at relatively low points. Currently, funds are just being attracted to more appealing storage options, and this pullback presents a very good opportunity to build positions;
The trend for AI hasn't changed, and the trend for NVIDIA hasn't changed either. A healthy pullback means it's time to get on board.
From a technical perspective: it has been consolidating for 150 days, and the weekly MACD is testing the zero line; breaking out of the previous high in a push wave, with daily moving averages in a bullish arrangement, perfectly aligning with the trading strategy of looking for wave 1, buying wave 2, and waiting for wave 3.
Don't look down, look up (see the chart). In a word, just do it!
陈桂林谈交易
Investing is indeed the best way to monetize one's understanding. On April 8th, I was still discussing Micron and SanDisk with the community and partners, at that time Micron was at 400 and SanDisk at 700 (see image 1);
But to be honest, it was just talk (I said it plainly, I said it for nothing). I was busy bottom-fishing CRCL at that time, and now comparing the gains and holding experience, I really feel like the flash combo has completely outperformed me, and all I can do is shed tears of envy;
To put it bluntly, this is just how people in the crypto space naturally look at crypto-related stocks first when they switch to US stocks. Their understanding and research on AI are not deep enough, still only staying at a superficial level. Ultimately, people can only earn money within the limits of their understanding.
$MSTR has released its earnings report. Personally, I think the significance of such companies' earnings reports is not very great, after all, when looking at MSTR, one indicator is enough: the rise and fall of Bitcoin. It is important to note that MSTR's candlestick price has already reached the upper edge of the previous consolidation range, while the upper edge of Bitcoin's last consolidation range is 98,000 (see image 2);
I see many teachers are no longer buying Bitcoin, but are treating MSTR as a leveraged Bitcoin to buy. Looking at it now, I think it's really a good strategy. No margin required, pure spot trading, naturally leveraged without liquidation, quite good.
@MSX_CN is still the most comprehensive stock exchange I can access for US stocks, basically covering all popular stocks. For crypto friends who find it inconvenient to switch between USDT and USD, it really is a good path to access US stocks.
