灯塔说

I am not affected by market fluctuations. On the contrary, I am very patient! The U.S. government has just proudly announced that energy exports have reached a historic record, firmly establishing itself as the "big winner" in the market, citing the dual explosion of economic resilience and equipment investment. Almost simultaneously, the panic caused by the Middle East conflict has rapidly spread, sending international oil prices skyrocketing. Both sides are claiming that the economy is improving, but the tension in the macro landscape is even thicker than on the Middle Eastern battlefield. Federal Reserve's Kashkari delivered a stern warning in his speech, stating that if the situation in Iran leads to a complete loss of control over energy costs, the Fed's interest rate hike scythe is ready to swing down again at any moment. The White House, feeling wronged yet resolute, stated that "inflation is just a temporary fluctuation, everything is under control." On one side is a facade of calm and prosperity, while on the other is the potential for oil prices to surge and wreak havoc globally at any moment. This macroeconomic duet is not a sign of a soft landing for the economy, but rather a roulette filled with inflation calculations and threats of geopolitical death. $BTC

Review: bitcoin:native The meaning of the quoted tweet is that the impact of the Middle East situation is in a tug-of-war phase. However, any deterioration in the situation is just a pullback in the bullish trend of the market. The bullish trend on the 4-hour chart is good. After the pullback, the breakout above 80K is completed. This is also the reason for being bullish if a golden cross forms on the daily chart (as mentioned in previous tweets). But this morning, after breaking above 80K, it coincidentally entered my grid trading short entry zone, entering at 80188 (with an upper allowance space of 83K-85K, and a downward target of 71K-70K; if a new round of daily-level decline occurs, look for lower). Why short in the grid? (This is a planned left-side entry.) Because the bearish trend on the daily chart is still present, and I don't know where the left-side high point is, I can only gamble based on the risk-reward ratio. Regarding the Middle East situation, the final outcome is still a ceasefire; the confirmation of a ceasefire would be a positive development, which means that Bitcoin may end the bullish trend. Subsequently, the effects of interest rate hikes and not lowering rates will begin to negatively impact the market. The previous shorts have already started to feel the pain of holding positions; before breaking 80K, the shorts felt safe, but the further it goes, the more difficult it becomes, and there may still be a squeeze of 3-5K points. Therefore, looking for more longs here is not recommended; when bullish sentiment comes, it marks the beginning of the end of the rebound. Currently, there is no need to participate too much in the short term; any news from the relevant parties regarding the US-Iran situation is affecting volatility, so filter out these unnecessary fluctuations. Just rambling, nothing serious!

Today, BTC surged back to around 80,000, driven by ETF fund inflows and sentiment surrounding the progress of U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory legislation; On the other hand, the situation in the Middle East continues to push up oil prices, while the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields strengthen, leading to a continued decline in market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which suppresses the valuation of risk assets. On one side, liquidity supports BTC On the other side, macro rates and geopolitical risks suppress strength In simple terms: the market continues to be pulled!

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$BTC As shown in the chart After breaking 79420 today, a large sell order bearish candle appeared, indicating the initial signs of a downtrend. A single K order block appeared at the top, with a slight rebound in the evening to the gap of 78100-78400, or attempting to short at the resistance positions of the order block at 78500-79400. If no new high is made, the price is likely to retrace to the support position of the order block at 75600-75300. The strongest support order block is at the 74000-73800 position, which is also the best area to go long. If this range is broken, it will trigger a 4-hour level reversal, moving into a bearish trend testing deeper support points (currently still in a high range oscillation of the 4-hour bullish trend). That could be around 70k and 68K. We respect the price movement.

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