陈桂林谈交易

On-chain data analysis and K-line technical analysis often spark the same frequency at certain nodes: A few days ago, while discussing with @Murphychen888, we talked about: 1. From the perspective of K-line technical analysis, BTC has the potential to establish a bottom at 60,000, based on the argument that during the rebound range of 60,000-76,000, due to the long horizontal time and large range, it has forcibly turned the weekly MACD into a golden cross under water, and the weekly RSI has formed a golden cross in the lower half; 2. However, it is important to note that the weekly level is a very large trading range, and its indicator golden cross, especially the golden cross under water, does not directly imply a trend reversal from bear to bull, but it can indicate the possibility of establishing a bottom in this price range, within this K-line oscillation structure; 3. The weekly level is too large, as it contains smaller trading ranges such as the 3-day level and daily level, and the upward movement of the weekly level must be accompanied by its subordinate levels, especially the daily level's pullback. This is not metaphysics; it is a rule. Just think about whether a continuous large green bullish candle at the weekly level would be accompanied by overbought conditions at the daily level? Divergence? 4. So why do we say that there is a possibility of establishing a bottom in this range? The observation point lies in the strength of the daily level pullback within the weekly golden cross, which can be divided into the following three situations: 1. Shallow pullback, whether it pulls back to 62,000 or 68,000, the pullback point is within the oscillation range. If it is accompanied by a volume spike, oversold indicators, indicator divergence, and a complete structure of the pullback K-line, with a complete wave pattern, and then moves upward to create momentum; then this serves as evidence that the weekly level has already established an upward trend; 2. Bottom reversal, breaking the previous low of 60,000 (for example, between 55,000-58,000), if it breaks but not deeply, and is accompanied by a complete signal of the end of the decline, what will this cause? It will cause indicator divergence at the weekly level, and indicator divergence means insufficient downward momentum, which is also a signal of trend reversal (see Chart 1, compare with Chart 2); 3. Black swan, the price breaks the previous low of 60,000, but whether from the K-line or from the indicators, the downward momentum at the daily level is still sufficient. Due to the sufficient downward momentum at the daily level, during the downward movement of the K-line, the weekly indicator turns from green to red, causing a false golden cross under water, which would lead to a new large-scale decline. 5. Whether it is an upward or downward movement, it is the interaction and mutual verification of different levels. So where are we now? We have reached the natural resistance point formed by the previous high of 76,000. At this point, we are facing a pullback caused by the overbought and divergence at the hourly level. Therefore, next, we just need to observe whether this hourly level pullback will expand to a larger level (4H---12H---1D?) (Chart 3).