🔮 Hormuz Tension, Market Misread Trump’s AI threat post is less about the image and more about the signal: the rhetoric has moved from bargaining to pressure, and that usually means the probability of a real escalation gets repriced fast. My read is that markets are still too comfortable treating this as theater. ⚖️ Near term, this is a risk-off setup first, not a clean macro gift for BTC. The bullish case only becomes more convincing if energy markets start translating the tension into a sustained inflation problem, because that’s when the Fed story gets awkward. The bear case is simpler: when geopolitics spikes, liquidity tends to tighten around the edges before any hedge narrative has time to work. 👁️‍🗨️ The sharp takeaway: if this becomes a genuine Hormuz stress event, the first move is fear, and only after that do people start debating whether BTC is protection or just another risk asset. #BTC #Geopolitics #Macro